The Future of Cloud Computing

Cloud computing is a metaphor for utilizing the Internet as a resource. The term "cloud" actually refers to the Internet, and is used extensively by small-to-medium sized enterprises. This can be achieved internally, externally, or a hybrid of the two. Services chosen are based on existing resources, IT management, and concerns over physical storage. In 2010, most SMEs will probably deploy some shape or form of cloud computing. The concept of cloud computing is analogous to the way businesses over a century ago stopped producing power via their own steam engines, and plugged into the grid.

Utilization of the technology follows a simple concept of "purchasing" resources from a third-party provider, similar to purchasing electrical service from that utility provider. This allows SMEs to reduce expenditure on internal computing resources, and only pay for that which they use. Concurrently, companies can purchase packages that specify a set amount of usage, with overages billable, similar to many cell phone contracts. To that end, many communications service providers are targeting businesses to offer cloud services, especially those that have a significant percentage of telecommuting employees. Although many analysts believe that cloud computing will stall in expansion (similar to VoIP services), companies initially short on ability to purchase large amounts of capital equipment would find cloud computing to be a useful way to amortize a potentially enormous amount of computing muscle. In terms of local computing power, computers devoted to this model need only have speedy Internet connections and processing power, with the vast majority of storage found in the virtual world. Massive banks of failure-prone hard drives are no longer required as necessity for those availing themselves of the service.

Cloud computing is not a new concept. Web hosting services, online data storage/backup companies, and any real-time data hosting service is, by the strictest definition, cloud-style computing. Carbonite.com is a company that offers online mass data storage for when the inevitable happens, and a user's hard drive fails. What the future holds for organizations in the coming year mainly reflects the need to organizations to expand their network infrastructure well outside the boundaries of the office. Additionally, cloud computing allows organizations to not only utilize the Internet as a communications medium, but as a separate online economy, whereby consumption of data-heavy things like media, financial records, and computation power itself becomes self-sufficient. Cloud usage, as opposed to a new iteration of the Internet, is poised to threaten traditional internal IT departments, with organizations utilizing their databases via external service. Small and medium business markets are the ones typically targeted by entrants such as Amazon.com, that offer competitive cloud services at a very reasonable fee. To those not in the IT profession threatening unemployment (or at the very least a significant change in what they do for a living), cloud computing is viewed as the natural evolution of semi-powerful, cheap computers, and businesses' need for mass data protection and computing power. Over the next decade, it will not be surprising to see hybrid-style IT departments, whereby internal staff is utilized for the most basic computer maintenance, and the heavy lifting done externally. If current trends in the service model continue, cloud services will be the source and maintainer of applications that businesses essentially download for usage, but do not require internal maintenance.

However, in this semi-Utopian vision threats emerge. A significant issue facing cloud users moving forward revolves around security. Surprisingly, security issues have been placed in the back burner, despite the fact with such a scenario, simple critical issues such as data storage are uncertain. Because heavy cloud computing clients do not know where data is physically stored, issues such as recovery and regulatory compliance are concerns. 2010 should usher in far more steps taken not only by service providers, but smarter moves by companies employing the services to ensure data integrity is what it should be. This year, after much talk over the past decade, we should be viewing cloud computing services increasingly as a ubiquitous presence, every bit as normal as paying a water bill, so we don't require a well in the backyard.

CES 2010 Flashes Green

With much of the focus on green technology in recent years, the Consumer Electronics industry, for the first time, appears poised to introduce products that are good performers in addition to power conservers. From wirelessly-powered televisions to low-power OLED products, CES 2010 will be remembered as the harbinger of green performance. Although there has been no shortage of more efficient and interesting ways to charge cell phones on display, 2010 is ready to show meat-and-potatoes gear that is energy smart. CES promoters are making the entire process greener, with catering and venue providers all touting more environmentally-friendly practices. The 2010 version of the Sustainable Planet Zone at CES should see some innovation, and at the very least, expansion of offerings.

With CES 2010 poised to see fewer attendees than in years' past, new companies are coming forth to usher in new technologies that not only satisfy environmentalists, but performance buffs. This is no small feat, especially in a realm where the type of cable used can, to some, make or break the (perceived) performance of an item. Modern home technology is moving rapidly into a wireless arena, so the onus is back on established hardware producers to make sure the gear performs without cable crutches. This is an example of the type of shift from old thinking to addressing consumer concern, where brand name tends to be less important than cost-effectiveness and performance. This is a good thing in an industry traditionally stagnated by iteration vs innovation. We review a few key pieces from known and new brands that should shift the landscape for the foreseeable future, while setting the pace for future innovators and existing brands slow on the uptake.

Samsung in late 2007 attempted to address the performance/green gap with their impressive LED-based LCD televisions. The European Imaging and Sound Association (EISA) was also impressed, issuing Samsung five associated awards in 2009. This year, Samsung is poised to make all of their LCD offerings LED-based, and in so doing, distance themselves from fellow competitors wanting to join the green race. Samsung in 2010 will introduce three new OLED (organic light-emitting diode) based units, exemplifying what can be done in all shapes and sizes. Currently, OLED technology is prohibitively expensive beyond 30 inches, so much of what has been seen is small. For CES 2010, Samsung will present 14" qFHD 3-D OLED prototype. Displays like this have high contrast (100,000:1) and is just over 1mm thick. Due to the lack of crosstalk, OLED displays are poised to walk hand-in-hand with 3-D technology, and this example, although small, shows how this is possible. Also on display is a 14" semi-transparent OLED panel, chiefly designed to laptops and portable devices. When off, the screen is 60% opaque, allowing users to see through the screen. Additionally, Samsung is showing off a 2" OLED flexible panel, designed to be used for smaller portable application, such as cell phones and music players. Originally demonstrated in Japan some years back, this technology is still a little too expensive and delicate for mass usage. AMOLED is a technology Samsung is actually manufacturing in its new IceTouch devices. A fully-transparent iteration of OLED, AMOLED is scratchproof glass substrate-based and otherwise ideal for a portable application. Samsung, as one of the world's largest manufacturers, should get a good foothold on reducing that lack of efficiency; the IceTouch devices are evidence of that. OLED, from a performance perspective, offers nearly 180 degrees of off-axis visibility and extremely high contrast ratios. From a design perspective, OLEDs are easily the thinnest panels on the market, and produce exceptional colors. Because of the performance and efficiency, OLED, and the companies that march in strong with it, should be panel market leaders for years to come.

Crestron, one of the leaders in high-budget home automation, recently unveiled Green Light. The program allows residential programmers to set energy usage thresholds and let the system manage when and where devices are regulated. The system is designed to have a real impact on issues such as lamp life, power consumption, and regulation of devices that are "turned off" (sometimes still consuming as much as 40% as when on). Although always a selling feature, the ability to program devices specifically targeted at energy conservation other than lighting is relatively new territory in practice, but not in concept. Crestron will prominently display these and the rest of their renowned automation systems at CES 2010.

Finally, A new company called Tenrehte is introducing smartphone and PC-controllable Wi-Fi power systems, that look like nothing more than extension cords. Introducing the PICOwatt, Tenrehte is attempting to introduce an affordable version of that which Crestron and other automation companies have done for years - automation over IP - but in a more affordable, modular fashion. As opposed to having to commit to an entire home's worth of elaborate control, Tenrehte allows homeowners to individually purchase a PICOwatt, and address it (and the connected appliance) individually. High-consumption appliances can now be singled out, and commanded to operate only during off-peak hours. This also allows homeowners to not feel compelled to purchase new appliances, touted to be more energy-efficient. The PICOwatt can turn clunkier appliances into efficient devices, by virtue of controlling when they operate.

CES 2010 is poised to be the first year where green tech really struts itself. The Sustainable Planet Zone is expected to have an additional ten vendors on display from 2009, and with the market open to new innovation, should increase even further in years to come.

Full Body Scanners Under Fire

Although known for decades to airport security personnel, metal detectors do not always display what is needed to be displayed. Measures instituted to limit liquids brought on board have illustrated the fact that long gone are the days of bringing knives and guns on board to hijack aircraft, and further shown that anti-terror measures are, in many cases, based on an educated guess as to a method of attack. Today, the threat is destruction of lives and property, and as the recent attempted attempted attack on a Detroit airliner shows, terrorists are willing to deploy innovative techniques to defeat today's protective measures. With airports now instituting full-body scanners to detect anomalous items on a passenger, these threats have the real potential to be reduced, but not without some controversy.

Whole-body imaging technology is essentially a radio-wave emitter that bounces these waves off of a person's body, revealing everything under clothing. Recent advances in the technology have replaced the actual image of the subject with a representative image of a "human", at least partially removing some privacy concerns. What is also detected are structures and masses under and beneath clothing that would, if made of the right materials and placed strategically, defeat metal detectors and most hand searches. Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, the Detroit Delta terrorist, had the powder chemical for his incendiary device hidden in his underwear, distributed such as to be nearly undetectable. In fact, the material went undetected, only to be discovered after he failed to detonate it on the actual airline.

As if on cue, the ACLU expressed concern, namely regarding the graphic nature of the body images. Although faces are blurred and (most) machines now using a feature that creates a representative image of a person, the group has concerns of image storing and involuntary participation. Recent interviews with passengers have revealed however that they prefer the use of an image scanner, versus a physical pat-down. Image scanning reserved to sequestered security personnel, and essential data on individuals is not stored. New innovations in the technology include only showing a subtle outline of the subject, with concealed items prominently displayed in red.

As of early 2010, the TSA began implementing millimeter wave technology as a primary screening technology next to metal detectors at airports in San Francisco, Miami, Albuquerque, Tulsa, Salt Lake City and Las Vegas. Airports in key US cities have used or plan to use MMW tech this year. Other countries have also begun using or evaluating MMW for airport screening, including the United Kingdom. Schipol Airport, where Nigerian Islamic terrorist Abdulmutallab had a connecting flight, will institute the measure full-on within the month. Currently, only 19 airports use MMW or low-level X-ray backscatter machines, and participation remains optional in most cases.

Evolution of the EBook

Although not a brand-new invention, the ebook reader is getting new traction, with Amazon's Kindle 2 and Sony's PRS-505. Resembling PDAs in form, the challenge readers always had was resembling that "ink on paper" look, so critical in helping to eliminate eye fatigue and imitating the real thing. Publishers have taken notice of the resurgence in interest of these devices, and some have fundamentally changed the distribution methods accordingly. In 2006, Sony debuted their "e-ink" technology, a form of liquid crystal that looks surprisingly like actual print. Like portable music devices, the advantages of ebook readers are obvious, such as enormous capacity and weight. Possibilities of embedding audio and video to augment the text exist, as do features such as deletable annotation and highlighting. Although more delicate than a book, content providers reserve the option to replace (re-download) content lost in the event of a catastrophic hardware failure.

Most recently, Apple's phone has been reported to be the most widely-used ebook reader, boding well for the concept of digital distribution and authorship. Started in 1971 with the Gutenberg Project, online-only distribution has yet to achieve the same level of global distribution music has. Fundamentally considered by many authors to the antithesis of everything good about books, writers such as J.K. Rowling have panned the idea of online distribution, publicly proclaiming there will "never be an online Harry Potter." Others, like Stephen King, have released content only readable on a digital device.

Paying attention to the resurgence in ebook tablets and content downloads, manufacturers like Samsung are putting more focus into OLED (organic light emitting diode) panels that are already being utilized as digital business cards in Japan. Flexible enough to be repeatedly manipulated without failure, flexible electronics are membranes containing thin conductors. Organic material is "printed" on the surface, and excited/illuminated by small levels of current passing through the conductors, making an electronic form of invisible ink. Perfect for ebook applications, flexible "pages" can be rolled and flipped, and do not require a backlight for operation, positively affecting battery life. Although initially proffered as another form of television display, OLED offers high contrast ratios and very good off-axis reading capabilities. OLED is a perfect choice for more esoteric ebook applications that would cater to the "paper bound" enthusiast, although practical implementation may be a few years off due to lifespan and durability issues.

Naturally, as with any digital distribution scenario, copy protection issues are prevalent. Technology such as "click-wrapping" a process by which the user agrees to copyright terms prior to allowing access to content. Effectively a digital version of shrink wrapping, click wrapping is a form of content protection that forces users to "click through" a window stating usage terms. Commonly found on software downloads, click wrapping is of limited usefulness in terms of presenting the content via torrent applications, but does allow legal recourse for owners of intellectual property that has been illegally re-distributed. The most sure form of protection might reside in the much-hated DRM (digital rights management) restricting the content to one (or a few) machines. Doing so would still allow free use of the content for portability purposes, while nearly eliminating the prospect of mass re-distribution.

Book lovers and the type typically found using readers need not be disparate entities. Although lacking the tactile feel, smell, and overall sensory experience of a book, ebook readers offer convenience and portability for trips and in scenarios where an individual dare not allow the paper copy to leave the house. Additionally, as has been displayed with digital music downloads, online book offerings can (and have) spurred additionally interest in other works and actual printed copy. Moving forward, we can expect to see a more-mainstream acceptance and proliferation of works and devices to read them. With technology like OLED potentially blurring the differences even further, that acceptance may come sooner rather than later.

The First Ten Years: A Review of the Best Tech

The period from 1999 to 2009 saw many innovations and iterations of consumer electronics technology. Some of these were truly revolutionary; others simply controversial that received a lot of tongue time. Most importantly, these new devices and formats changed the scenery forever.

10. 7.1 Surround: The first major change since digital surround took stride in 1998, 7.1 audio was embraced by nearly every major manufacturer. Placing a pair of speakers in the rear of the room to augment the (now) side surrounds, this format was supported by Dolby EX and DTS-ES. Although not as widely accepted by movie studios, hardware companies did a great job imitating native 7.1 from 5.1 sources. Recognizing the benefits of the format, it is now standard on Blu-Ray.

9. DVI: A surprise entry, DVI gets a nod of respect as the digital connection icebreaker to the average consumer, paving the way for the now-ubiquitous HDMI. DVI does many of the things that HDMI does, excluding audio. Significantly, older DVI spec is still current today, and is found on many PCs and laptops.

8. Blu-Ray: Blu-Ray is still toward the bottom, due to the fact that consumers have not embraced the format to the degree that DVD has. Offering lossless audio and 1080p video, Blu-Ray, properly authored, offers six times the data resolution and far superior audio to its DVD sibling.

7. Xbox 360: Microsoft's successor to 2001's Xbox, the Xbox 360, despite its rampant hardware issues, changed the landscape for the gaming industry. The processing power and studio influence, combined with the relative ease for developers to program, have all but buried the PC game market, and placed once-dominant Sony in a decided back-seat position. The Xbox 360 has the dominant gaming franchise in Halo, and is the leader in online gaming. Xbox Live offers a rich multiplayer experience, so much so that studios place enormous significance on that portion, and for many gamers, is the purchase decision-maker.

6. DLP: Texas Instrument's digital light processing display format brought consumers out of the single-chip LCD display fog, once fraught with dead pixels and bad blacks. Using a mirror chip roughly the size of a slide, DLP changed the game for front projection, all but killing CRT in
rear projection, and allowed manufacturers to fully embrace digital displays in its entirety.

5. Automatic room correction: Although consumers are now used to this feature, automatic room calibration on today's receivers allow potentially better results in terms of speaker level settings and distance. A new feature introduced was the presence of EQ settings, which listened to the individual speakers and their interaction with the room. Although typically a stopgap for actual acoustic treatment and system calibration, versions such as Audyssey, Yamaha's YPAO, and Pioneer's MCACC have made huge differences in many a system.

4. HDMI: This entry sits in the middle of the pack, due its non-essential nature and inconsistent reliability. Required by formats such as Blu-Ray, HDMI has experienced ten revisions since its debut in Fall 2003. Favored by Hollywood studios for its copy protection capabilities, HDMI is, for the foreseeable future, the digital A/V connection of choice by the industry.

3. Internet retailers: Although not a format nor technology, the internet has inexorably changed the way electronics are purchased. Consumers are spending over twice as much online overall as in 1999, with smaller retailers especially feeling the pricing pinch. Due to the widespread acceptance on the internet as a purchasing outlet, many consumers are focusing less on brands offered and more on price. In the consumer electronics realm, online retailers have been allowed to spring up, due to easier distribution and lack of need for a physical storefront. As a result, competition has increased overall in the marketplace, with brick and mortar retailers taking a service-provider approach (focusing less on hardware sales as in years' past) while keeping price competition local.

2. Flat panel displays: Replacing tube sets entirely, flat panel displays of all sizes now adorn the walls of all income brackets. Due to incredibly aggressive pricing and efficient manufacturing, flat panels now dominate the display market in size/price ratios that would have been
laughable in the CRT age. With emerging technology such as OLED (organic light-emitting diode), displays are poised to go even thinner and more efficient.

1. Apple's iPod: The clear winner, the iPod not only changed the way people listen to music, but fundamentally altered the way they acquire it. The iPod is one of the few pieces of technology that changed the industry that provides the content for the device. The music industry has taken notice (as have artists) by providing content online at Apple's iTunes Music Store, and with certain artists only distributing digitally. The iPod over time has gotten smaller, increased capacity, and pioneered the Click Wheel, an interface that many now see as the standard for non-touchscreen applications.

Some will agree and others disagree on this list. One thing that is certain is that the influence and consumer feedback on these technologies was witnessed firsthand by yours truly, and based on those observations, this list is in good stead.

HDMI 1.4 Introduces Features, More Confusion

Despite HDMI's gradual dominance as the digital interface of choice in the consumer electronics industry, the format has undergone many revisions in its short life. In mid-2009, grumblings of a new version, HDMI 1.4, were felt by consumers and manufacturers,many none too willing to overhaul their processes and installations to consider another (possibly mandatory) revision. The thrust is not whether the revision makes sense, the question is timing and relevance in an already-tough marketplace.

Designed to support 100mbps of data transfer between components, offer 3D support, and 4k resolution (think your 1080p set is futureproof?), HDMI 1.4 is ushering in excitement among tech heads and resentment from those thinking that their system is now facing near-obsolescence. Although the idea is smart to have one cable (try) to do everything, existing issues that installers have with cables falling out, insertion loss, and odd termination issues for custom runs run the risk of being expounded by making the cable do even more. As discussed in HDMI: More Than Meets the Eye Pattern, HDMI already is tasked with an enormous job, carrying huge amounts of high resolution audio and video. As it stands, long runs of this cabling are fraught with issues and require increasingly thick and unwieldy cables to prevent image and sound drops. Another issue (and it's not uncommon in the consumer electronics industry), is that this new "standard" is announced way in advance of any manufacturer thinking about introducing products that support it. This has a chilling effect on consumer spending, thinking that their new Blu-Ray player or 1080p TV will be immediately behind the curve after HDMI 1.4 rolls out. And yes, the features that are included with the new interface require HDMI 1.4-ready cabling to handle this, already raising fears of backwards compatibility between new and legacy components.

So, let's discuss what these proposed revisions entail.

4K Resolution:

The largest issue with HDMI revisions is the fact that the impetus for the change needs to be supported by reality. In other words, if (existing feature) Deep Color is not utilized by Blu-Ray manufacturers and studios, what is the point in further
confusing the marketplace by introducing it? This question is often asked by clients when shopping for new gear. Savvy consumers don't have problems spending money; they just want to do so wisely. HDMI 1.4, with it's purported 4K resolution capability, falls into the category of "all hat, no horse." Studios all have to overhaul their equipment and methods of broadcasting, camera, telecine, and the consumer must upgrade the display to take advantage. Operating at over four times the current broadcast standard, this would create enormous financial and engineering burdens on content providers, already struggling to send out an acceptable image at 1920x1080 (in those rare cases when that resolution is fully achieved). On the consumer end, this means 1080p TVs are now going to be perceived as second-class, and Blu-Ray, which just began getting traction two years ago, looks like a passing breeze in the annals of technology.

3-D:

Something the movie studios for commercial release have been toying with is the widespread issuance of 3-D movies. Part of this is to drive consumers back into theaters, suffering since home theater offers a (potentially) better experience. Now, electronics manufacturers are starting to see the possibilities on the home front, and HDMI 1.4 is designed from the outset to support it. This might again be an issue of the tail wagging the dog, as the HDMI Consortium is pushing hardware manufacturers to generate new equipment to support a new standard. This area is especially tricky for a few reasons. First, there is no standard for 3-D tech in home displays. Second, the way in which 3-D is being discussed means that existing HDMI cables should work. What this means is that there is no guarantee that holding off on a purchase to take advantage of this feature will have any benefit, and that, with consumers' eyes facing the future, new displays offering 3-D (effectively) might pass by unnoticed.

Audio Return Channel:

Most modern receivers decode everything already. There is minimal benefit for this as we understand it today. In effect, this allows the TV to be the switching hub over the traditional method of utilizing the receiver for that function, but the concept is limited due to the fact that lossless formats are not decoded by any television known today. This eliminates 50% of the reason to use HDMI for consolidated audio and video.

Ethernet:

An interesting option that get surprisingly negative feedback in the tech press, internet connectivity in components is already a reality. Networkable televisions and Blu-Ray players already exist, with the next iteration of this allowing a potential self-contained "mini-network" amongst electronic gear. This would allow components to share internet-based data, facilitating maximum effectiveness of component interoperability (remember when HDMI 1.1 televisions and 1.2 sources didn't like to talk to one another?), customization, and possibly remote control coding options. This feature, if implemented wisely, could be an interesting addition.

HDMI as an interface has seen revisions in a seven year period of 1.0, 1.1, 1.2/1.2a, 1.3/1.3a/1.3b/1.3b1/1.3c, and 1.4 - with products possibly shipping in late 2010. Although many of these revisions incorporated capabilities that impacted few (DVD-Audio, SACD, Deep Color, etc), that did not stop the industry from introducing them, nor did it stop consumers from being confused. Although it is laudable that the consumer electronics industry persists in innovating, attempting increased cross-pollination between PCs and CE gear, and offering new features, it needs to understand that consumers like a certain comfort level. Announcing cable revisions that halt equipment purchases - especially in this economy with smaller retailers struggling already - might not prove to be wise.